Lean on Alabama and Under win
29-14-2 on all Bowl Best Bets and Opinions.
I started my bowl season with 3 pretty solid Best Bet winners on Temple -7, Louisiana Tech +10, and Texas -3, but I suffered a couple of brutal losses on back to back nights last week. My Thursday Best Bet on Washington +9 1/2 was up by 18 in the 3rd quarter, but I ended up losing that game in a way that epitomizes my season. The trouble started when Washington missed a field goal that would have put them up by more than a touchdown to the spread. It then continued with Baylor having a 4 point lead and needing a first down to run out the clock. Instead of a first down, they end up breaking a run for a touchdown to go up by 11 with 2 1/2 minutes left. At that point I'm really not worried since Washington is scoring on about 80% of their possessions and a backup door cover was very likely at that point. At least that was the case until a linemen decides to be a hero and field the kickoff, which he ultimately fumbled. Unreal.

It got even worse the next night, as my Best Bet on Iowa +14 pulled to within 7 points late and then gave up a field goal for a 10 point deficit but the Hawkeyes had the ball with a couple of minutes left. After stalling on offense Oklahoma tried to run out the clock by getting a 1st down on 4th and one and just like the Washington game, the Sooners got a touchdown instead despite 10 defenders up at the line of scrimmage knowing that Oklahoma was going to run. If Oklahoma gets a first down they run out the clock. The only way I could possibly lose that game is the unlikely touchdown and that's exactly what happened. Just another brutal loss in a season full of them.

My Monday night 2-Star Best Bet on Stanford +4 looked like the right side the entire game, as Stanford never trailed, but the Cardinal missed a game winning 35 yard field goal at the end of regulation and then missed another field goal in overtime. It looked like I was going to suffer another loss in which I had the right side (Stanford out-gained Oklahoma State by 178 yards as a 4 point underdog), as Oklahoma State appeared to score a touchdown in overtime to win by 6 but that call was correctly reversed the the Cowboys decided to kick a field goal to win by 3. I'm amazed that some people emailed telling me I finally got a lucky win, but I look at that game as avoiding another unlucky loss since winning a game I deserved to win does not qualify as a lucky win and having an underdog that out-gained the favorite by 178 yards and never trailed in regulation certainly qualifies as the right side.

I'm now 4-2 on my Bowl Best Bets for +1.3 Stars but it's pretty fair to say that I should be 6-0, or at the very least 5-1 given how unlikely the endings were in my two losses. I am 5-7 on my Bowl Strong Opinions (4-5 sides, 1-2 totals) and my Bowl leans are 20-5-2 (7-4-2 on sides and 13-1 on totals) after winning my leans on Alabama and Under.

Week 14 Recap and Regular Season Results
I had some momentum going into the final weeks, as I had winning weeks in week 12 and 13, but I decided to pass in week 14 (although I went 2-0 on my Strong Opinions on Iowa State +10 1/2 over Kansas State and with Baylor -2 1/2 over Texas) and then I posted a Strong Opinion on the Army-Navy Under, which also won. The College Free Analysis was 16-6 ATS in the final 2 weeks and 54% for the season.

Futures Win Again
I have profited every season on my College and NFL futures since I started releasing them a few years ago to my clients that were signed up in time for week 1. This year I had 5 season win total bets and went 3-2 on those and had 4 other futures bets that are already profitable and will be more profitable if Alabama wins the BCS Championship game. I won 2-Stars with Arkansas Over 8 1/2 wins. I lost 2-Stars with LSU Under 9 1/2 wins (at -160 odds, so -3.2 Stars). I lost 2-Stars with Wisconsin Under 9 1/2 wins (at -110 odds so -2.2 Stars). I won 2-Stars on Oklahoma State over 8 1/2 wins. I won 2-Stars on Miss State under 7 1/2 wins. I also won 8 Stars with my 1-Star wager on Oklahoma State to win the Big 12 at +800 odds (and lost 1-Star on the hedge on Oklahoma +3 1/2 the final game of the season). I lost 1 Star on Cincinnati to win the Big East at +500 odds (they tied but West Virginia got the BCS slot), but I won 1-Star on the West Virginia hedge in their final game. I lost 1.5 Stars on Florida State to win the ACC at +145. I won 1.5 Stars on Alabama at +450 to win the BCS Championship and I haven't decided if I'm going to hedge that play or not. Overall, I won 0.6 Stars on the season win totals and I'm up 12.25 Stars on the other futures bets.

Despite winning the final few weeks my Regular season College Best Bets were still a very disappointing 38-39-1 for the season (89-95-2 on a Star Basis for -15.5 Stars at -110 odds and +6.1 Stars on Futures bets for -9.4 Stars overall), but that is actually a good record considering that my Best Bets are a ridiculously unlucky -21 in fumbles lost margin. Fumbles are 90% random in college football, so being -21 in fumbles is simply bad luck and there isn’t much I can do about it. Teams I’ve had Best Bets on are actually positive in fumbles when I haven’t bet on them, which makes the -21 in fumbles even more random.

My regular season Best Bets covered the spread by an average of 1.6 points per game this season despite being -21 in fumbles, which is another indication that my handicapping has been good. I have had 7 Best Bets where I was on the right side with my teams dominating from the line of scrimmage and losing because of random events (UCF, Ohio, and Utah State in week 4, Illinois and Syracuse in week 5, Toledo in week 7, and Hawaii in week 9). I had my only lucky win of the season and a lucky push in week 7 with Navy covering despite being badly out-gained and Oregon pushing a game they probably should not have. I’ve also had 16 toss-up games that could have gone either way this season and I’m just 6-10 on those games. I’m only 38-39-1 but I’ve had more 6 more unlucky losses than lucky wins and I would be 44-34 if I won the 7 games that I lost that I had the right side on and lost the two games that I won and pushed that were undeserved (and would have an even better record if I split the toss-up games instead of being 6-10 on those).

It’s been a tough year record wise due to the negative variance of fumbles, but my handicapping has been good. I’ve mentioned many times that I’ve also had years when I had more lucky wins than unlucky losses and my record was better than it should have been in those years (like the 74% I hit in 2005, when I should have been at 66%). Unfortunately, this year has been season with the most negative variance I have had, which is why my record is not around 56% or 57% as it usually is. I’m still handicapping at a 56% or higher level so try not to lose faith in my methods, which have worked for me for years. My College Football Best Bets are 878-683-37 (56.2%) since 2004 and 56% lifetime. My handicapping has actually been as good as normal (56%) this season and I head into the bowl season with confidence.

Basketball Best Bets
My Basketball Best Bets are 6609-5553-265 on a Star Basis the last 13 seasons, for a profit of +500.7 Stars at -1.10 odds, and I’m 55% on my Basketball Best Bets over 24 seasons.

For a season by season breakdown of each sport the last 12 years you can visit my Past Performance page.

Available Best Bets Packages

Best Bets Release Page
As many of you know, the lines on my Best Bets move quickly after I release the Best Bets each Thursday. A few years ago I added Football and Basketball Best Bets release pages, which allows all subscribers to get the Best Bets at exactly the same time and gives you the best chance of getting down before the lines move. From what I’ve heard from my clients, most of those that use the release pages get their bets in before the lines move. The release page is the major reason why a season subscription is a better option than paying for the Best Bets on a weekly or daily basis (and you also save money buying a subscription).

For those that are new to Dr Bob Sports, I recommend reading the essays in the Sports Betting section under Essays in the menu and sample analysis listed below.

Sample College Analysis
Sample NFL Analysis

Free Analysis
Each week during the season I will continue to provide more free information than any other web-site (about 50-60 NFL and College games analyzed for free each week) and I hope you enjoyed that analysis last season and will continue to visit weekly this upcoming season. My Free NFL analysis is posted on Thursday morning at 10 am Pacific each week and the College Free analysis is posted on Thursday and Friday each week.

Super Bowl Analysis for just $35 ($30 for Members)!!
I don’t have a Best Bet on Super Bowl 46 but I have a Strong Opinion on the total and Strong Opinions on 3 Super Bowl propositions. You also get my NFL math model prediction. Click here for my Super Bowl analysis.

Championship Round Recap and Season Results
I lost my 2-Star Best Bet on San Francisco, who actually played better than I thought from the line of scrimmage (5.8 yards per play to 4.2 yppl for the Giants), but it's hard to predict the Niners would be -2 in turnovers (both fumbles on punt returns) given that they were +32 in turnover margin heading into the game. My lean on the Baltimore-New England Under won (I had no opinion on the side).

For the season I am just 18-20-1 on my NFL Best Bets (40-43-2 on Stars) and very good 27-10 on my Strong Opinions. With the close loss on the Niners I am now an unlucky 6-10 on Best Bets decided by less than 7 points (with one of those wins being the Dallas at New England game that was really not a close win since the Pats were down by 3 points before scoring late to win straight up and another being the Raiders +3 in week 15 when they gave up 2 late TD's to lose by 1 - that game was never in doubt spread wise - so I'm really 4-10 on toss-up games this season). It’s a shame that the games I’ve considered as possible Best Bets are 45-30-1 (that's the record of the Best Bets and Strong Opinions combined) while the Best Bets are just 18-20-1, but my methods are obviously working well overall, which is a good sign for next season.

I’ve had a good grasp on the NFL overall this season given that I’m actually 144-102-6 ATS picking every NFL side (with 14 no opinions), and it's pretty random that my Best Bets haven't won. I've never had a season in which my methods have worked so well and my analysis overall has been so good yet I've lost on my Best Bets. However, I'm excited about the performance of my new math model and I'm looking forward to being profitable next season.

NFL Math Model 264-206-10
I made some adjustments to my NFL math model, which started in week 5, and the new model was pretty good this year. The sides with 5 or more point differentials were 1-0 in week 17 (Houston) and the math was 1-0 on games with 3 or more point differences from the line (2.8 or more, actually). For the season the games with differences of 3 points or more are now 46-32-1 ATS. The record of my NFL Math Model when the difference is 5 points or more (4.8 or more, actually) is now 264-206-10 (56%) since I started using my model in 2000. The math model forecasts for every game are included each week with my NFL Best Bets package starting in week 5.

Best Bets Packages

For those that are new to Dr Bob Sports, I recommend reading the essays in the Sports Betting section under Essays in the menu and sample analysis listed below.

Sample College Analysis
Sample NFL Analysis

Free Analysis
Each week during the season I will continue to provide more free information than any other web-site (about 50-60 NFL and College games analyzed for free each week) and I hope you enjoyed that analysis last season and will continue to visit weekly this upcoming season. My Free NFL analysis is posted on Thursday morning at 10 am Pacific each week and the College Free analysis is posted on Thursday and Friday each week.

7 Saturday daytime Best Bets available around 7:45 am Pacific.

Basketball Best Bets 99-88-2 for +1.4 Stars
Best Bets 109-76 on Stars since January 12th
I won my Free Friday 2-Star Best Bet on Cornell +15 (posted below in the Free Analysis section), as the Big Red lost by only 11 points. My low point this season was -26.7 Stars, but I'm +28.1 Stars of profit since then and I expect to be solidly profitable by season's end like I usually am.

I am now 99-88-2 on my Basketball Best Bets and 239-216-4 on a Star Basis (1-1 on 4-Stars, 39-38 on 3-Stars and 59-49-2 on 2-Stars) for +1.4 Stars at -1.10 odds. It was a very frustrating start to the season, but I just kept using the methods that have been winning for me for years and I'm likely to continue to win going forward (I'm 109-76 on Stars since January 12th). After all, I'm +502.1 Stars of profit the last 14 seasons and have averaged over 40 Stars of profit over my 24 years and thousands of Best Bets, which is certainly more indicative of my future results than poor early season record was. Hopefully most of you realized that and stuck with me through the negative variance.

4 Week Subscription Now Available for $275
You can purchase Basketball Best Bets daily for just $15 and I also have a 28 day subscriptions available and a packages that go through the NCAA Tournament and through the NBA Finals for about $7 a day. Available Best Bets Packages

2011-12 Season Subscriptions Available
All Football and Basketball Best Bets +697.5 Stars Last 13 Years!
My 2011 Football and Basketball season subscriptions, as well as my Football-Basketball Combo Package (the best value) are now available. Should the NBA season be shortened refunds for weeks missed will be given.

2010/2011 Season Results
Best Bets 442-375-16 on a Star Basis
I lost my 2-Star Best Bet on the Under but the win by Dallas resulted in a profit of +3.2 Stars on the series (2-Stars risked at +1.60 odds). I had Dallas rated as the best team in the NBA heading into the playoffs and that proved to be the case. In the playoffs I was 12-10 on Best Bets (despite losing a 5 point dog in OT), 14-9-2 on Strong Opinions, 16-21 on leans and 3-0 on Series Bets for +11.0 Stars (1 Star on Memphis over San Antonio for +3.3 Stars, 1.5 Stars on Dallas over the Lakers for +4.5 Stars, and 2 Stars on Dallas over the Heat for +3.2 Stars).

I had another profitable season of Basketball Best Bets despite losing more close games than I won (15-21 on Best Bets decided by 1 point or less). For the season I was 442-375-16 on a Star Basis (3-2 on 4-Stars, 59-53-2 on 3-Stars and 121-104-5 on 2-Stars and 3-0 on playoff series bets for +11.0 Stars) for a profit of +29.5 Stars at -1.10 odds. Had I gone 18-18 on those close games I would have profited another 14 Stars, so I'm satisfied with my level of handicapping despite not profiting as much as I usually do in Basketball.

Basketball Best Bets +500.7 Stars Last 13 Seasons!
My Basketball Best Bets are 6609-5553-265 on a Star Basis the last 13 seasons, for a profit of +500.7 Stars at -1.10 odds, and I’m 55% on my Basketball Best Bets over 24 seasons.

Free Analysis
I post free analysis almost every day during basketball season on anywhere from 1 to 5 games and those opinions have been profitable over the years.

I won my Friday Free Best Bet on Cornell +15 and split my two opinions. I'm 6-4 on my free Best Bets and 46-50-1 on my free opinions this season.

Last season I was 12-6 on my free Best Bets and 105-88-2 on my free opinions and I am 38-30-1 on my Free Best Bets and 428-378-12 on my free opinions the previous 4 seasons.

Saturday daytime Best Bets available around 7:45 am Pacific.