As most of you know, I went to Berkeley and I'm a huge Cal fan. Despite that, I have always done my best to be fair when judging my beloved Golden Bears, to the dismay of my many Cal friends. I'm being a bit indulgent to use my Dr Bob blog to post my analysis of Cal's football team, but I'm going to do it anyway. Go Bears!

California had their first losing season in coach Jeff Tedford’s 9 year reign in 2010, but the Golden Bears were better than their record, which was skewed by an unlucky 0-3 record on games decided by 3 points or less. The Bears were only out-scored by 0.9 points per game (excluding their 52-3 win over FCS opponent UC Davis) despite facing a schedule that was 8.0 points tougher than average. Cal’s defense ranked as the 7^th best in the nation on a compensated yards per play basis, giving up just 5.0 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average FBS defense. That unit was invigorated by new defensive coordinator Clancy Pendergast and Pendergast should have another very good stop unit in 2011 despite the loss of 3 NFL draft picks and 6 starters overall. LB Mychal Kendricks led Cal in tackles behind the line of scrimmage with 8.5 sacks and 6.5 tackles for loss and the Bears return their top 3 in passes defended and should be very tough to throw against again this season. The defensive line will miss DE Cameron Jordan, a 1^st round NFL draft pick, but the Bears will still have a sturdy defensive front and Pendergast will use an athletic linebacking corps to get to the quarterback. Cal’s defense probably won’t be in the top 10 in my ratings as they were last season they will still be very good.

The Bears’ biggest chance for improvement is on the offensive side of the ball, as that unit averaged just 13.4 points per game in the final 5 games of the season after starting quarterback Kevin Riley was injured. Riley was not great, but he wasn’t horrible either – averaging 5.9 yards per pass play against FBS opponents that would combine to allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback. New quarterback, Buffalo transfer Zach Maynard, should be at least as good as Riley and much, much better than backup Brock Mansion was after taking over for Riley late last season (Mansion averaged a pathetic 3.9 yppp). Maynard was pretty good in his only year as a starter at Buffalo, averaging 6.3 yppp against FBS competition that would allow 6.4 yppp to an average QB. Those numbers are good for a MAC quarterback and his quality of receivers is much higher in Berkeley than it was at Buffalo, as wideouts Marvin Jones and former 5-Star recruit Keenan Allen (Maynard’s half-brother) give Cal one of the best receiving corps in the Pac-12. It will up to Maynard to help the very good receiving corps live up to their billing and I expect his numbers to be better than Riley’s and a huge improvement over Cal’s overall 2010 passing rating (0.5 yppp worse than an average FBS team, which is very bad for a Pac-10 team). Maynard did throw 15 picks in 2009 at Buffalo, which is a concern, but he does add a running element that the Bears haven’t had in a while. Cal fans should be a bit concerned about the loss of top RB Shane Vereen, who opted for the NFL after a junior season in which he ran for 1167 yards at 5.1 ypr. New top back Isi Sofele averaged a solid 4.9 ypr as Vereen’s backup last season and there are some talented options behind Sofele (aren’t there always at Cal?), but there are certainly some questions about Cal’s running back situation for the first time in years. Maynard should add to the rushing numbers and overall I don’t see the Bears being too much worse than last season’s good rushing numbers (5.4 yards per rushing play, which does not include sacks, against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team). Cal’s offense rated as average by FBS standards in 2010 despite 5 games with a horrible backup quarterback, and I expect the Bears to be improved offensively in 2011 even if Maynard proves to be no better than Riley was. With a very good receiving corps, and with Tedford back calling the plays for the first time in years, it’s certainly possible that Maynard could reach the good level of previous first year starters in Tedford’s earlier seasons in Berkeley. Cal’s pass attack has had an average rating of 0.9 yppp better than average in Tedford’s 9 seasons (+0.7 yppp if you take out Aaron Rodgers’ great 2004 season) and the Bears could be the surprise team of the Pac-12 if Maynard can reach those levels. I’ll expect Maynard to be about 0.2 yppp better than an average FBS quarterback, which should be good enough, given their strong defense, to get the Bears back to a bowl game after missing out on the post-season for the first time under Tedford last season.