My essays on Advanced Topics delve into some of the more nuanced subjects in Sports Betting, from how to free yourself from 'results-oriented' thinking to understanding how Bayesian Probability calls into question the claims of other touts.

I also explore some basic financial concepts that underlie Sports Investing, as well as how to weigh your options when you have multiple long-term positive expectations on opportunities, from multiple bets to growth in other markets.

Sports Investing Essays

Topic: Advanced Topics

Expected Fluctuation from sample to sample for events with uncertain outcomes, and the utter normality of hot and cold streaks.

Variance in sports, betting and life.

Variance (3/3) and Results-Oriented Thinking

Why being "results oriented" is not always a good thing.

Bayes Theorem and Sports Betting Touts

Using simple statistics to debunk the ridiculous claims of other sports betting touts.

Expected Value vs. Expected Growth

Earning profits with your profits, and the tradeoff between immediate equity and long term growth.

The Sharpe Ratio

Comparing the risk adjusted return of Dr. Bob's picks to the S&P 500.