About Dr. Bob

College Football Analysis - Sample From Week 11, 2005

Best Bets

Thursday, November 10, 2005

****FRESNO ST. (-8) 40 vs. Boise St. 14

I’ve been waiting for this game all season. Boise State may have beaten me last week, but that does not change the fact that they are one of the most vastly overrated teams in the nation this season. The Broncos are nothing like the team they were last season, as they have been just average offensively this year - averaging 5.9 yards per play with starting quarterback Zabransky in the game, but doing so against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team. The offense was actually sub-par in last week’s 56-6 win over New Mexico State, as the Broncos averaged 5.8 yppl in that game against an Aggies’ defense that would allow 6.4 yppl on the road against an average team. Boise State will have some success in this game running the football against a soft Bulldogs’ defensive front that is 0.4 yards per rushing play worse than average (4.6 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.2 yprp against an average defense), but Fresno State has a very strong pass defense that has yielded only 4.7 yards per pass play this season (to teams that would 5.8 yppp against an average team). Overall, the Broncos’ defense is 0.4 yppl better than average and my math model projects just 5.1 yprp and 4.9 yppp for Boise State in this game. Fresno State’s balanced attack (186 rushing yards and 214 pass yards per game) rates at 0.7 yppl better than average when starting quarterback Paul Pinegar is in the game (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and Boise State’s defense rates below average against both the run (4.6 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.3 yprp against an average team) and the pass (6.0 yppp allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppp against an average defense), so the Bulldogs should have no problem moving the ball in any fashion they want to. Boise State has also played much worse, relatively, against good offensive teams, surrendering 6.8 yppl to Georgia, Oregon State, Bowling Green and Hawaii, who would combine to average 6.0 yppl against an average team. Fresno, meanwhile, averaged 7.5 yppl on offense against the only good defense that they have faced (Oregon), so they didn’t build up their offensive numbers against bad teams. Fresno State will not only dominate this game from the line of scrimmage, but they have the nation’s best special teams (+9.9 points per game) and have a 7.4 points edge over Boise’s better than average special teams units. My math model favors Fresno by 20 ½ points, so the math would still favor them by 13 points even if special teams is no factor. The Bulldogs also apply to an 84-38-2 ATS late season situation that plays on teams with 1 or fewer losses at home when facing another winning team, and they apply to a 176-88-7 ATS home momentum situation. Boise State, meanwhile, applies to a negative 30-70-1 ATS road letdown situation based on last week’s blowout win and the Bulldogs don’t play nearly as well away from home. In fact, Boise was killed 13-48 at Georgia - the only other really good team that they played this season – lost by 3 against a mediocre Oregon State team and were out-played in a 44-41 win at Hawaii (out-gained 6.2 yppl to 7.4 yppl by Hawaii in that game). I would have made Fresno State a 3-Star Best Bet without the benefit of the favorable situations and the Bulldogs are worthy of a 4-Star Best Bet even if they remain favored by more than 7 points.

Downgrade Fresno State to a 3-Star Best Bet if they become a favorite of more than 10 points.

Saturday, November 12, 2005

***OHIO ST. (-19) 42 vs. Northwestern 12

Northwestern is a vastly better team now than they were in the first half of the season, but the Buckeyes are also much better and their dominating defense will be able to handle the Wildcats’ prolific attack. Northwestern has averaged an impressive 6.5 yards per play this season against a schedule of teams that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average team, but today Brett Basanez and company must take on a Buckeyes’ defense that it a bit better, allowing 4.4 yppl to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average team. It is on the other side of the ball where Ohio State has the advantage, as quarterback Troy Smith leads an attack that has averaged 6.7 yppl (against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) since he took over as the full-time quarterback after easing his way into the lineup early in the season. Northwestern has a much better defense now than their full season stats show, as Wildcats’ coach Randy Walker made some defensive changes in personnel during their week 5 bye week. Northwestern is 0.3 yppl worse than average defensively for the season (6.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average defense), but the Wildcats are 0.4 yppl better than average (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppl against an average team) in 5 games since the defensive changes were made. Even after making those adjustments, my math model still has Ohio State’s offense racking up 454 yards at 6.3 yppl while the Buckeyes’ defense holds Northwestern to 332 yards at 5.0 yppl. The hidden value in playing Ohio State is their great special teams, which rate as the 2nd best in the nation at +9.4 points per game better than an average Division 1A team. Northwestern is 2.4 points per game worse than average in special teams and my special teams ratings have tested to be very accurate going forward and are actually probably the reason my math model is so much better than the actual line (because special teams are never given the full value that they should be by the oddsmakers and other handicappers). In this game the math favors Ohio State by 25 points, which gives them a 58.5% chance of covering at -17 points (based on the historical performance of my math predictions). Ohio State also applies to a 176-88-7 ATS home momentum situation and a 52-16 ATS last home game angle that combine to give the Buckeyes a 57% chance of covering a fair line. The Buckeyes are 13-5-1 ATS in conference home games the last few years and Northwestern has played worse in games following a victory the last 2 seasons (3-7-1 ATS), than they have in all other games (8-2 ATS), so I don’t expect the ‘Cats to play their best today after last week’s satisfying come-from-behind win over Iowa. I’ll lay up to 21 points with Ohio State in this game and the Buckeyes are a 3-Star Best Bet at -20 points or less and I’ll Upgrade Ohio State to a 4-Star Best Bet if they become a favorite of 16 points or less.

***Kentucky 35 (+11.5) at VANDERBILT 34

Kentucky is 5-2 ATS and they remain an underrated team given the number the oddsmakers have posted on this game. Kentucky started the season with a promising 24-31 loss as a 22 point underdog to a very good Louisville team, but a number of defensive injuries in their second game, and an injury to top receiver Keenan Burton kept the Wildcats from building on that opening effort. The Kentucky defense has been 1.1 yppl worse than average in their 7 games since that good effort against Louisville, so Vanderbilt’s mediocre offense (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) should post pretty good numbers in this game. Kentucky has been decent offensively this season (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and that unit got much better two weeks ago when Burton returned to the lineup. Kentucky has a good rushing attack (4.9 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow just 4.5 yprp to an average team) and quarterback Andre’ Woodson has averaged 6.3 yards per pass play in 4 games with Burton (the first two and the most recent two) against teams that would combine to allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback. Burton looked great last week against Auburn (7 catches for 100 yards) and Woodson averaged an impressive 6.6 yppp against the Tigers’ good defensive unit (which would allow 5.8 yppp on the road to an average team). With Burton back in the lineup, the Wildcats’ attack rates at 0.3 yppl better than average and they’ll also move the ball well in this game against a Commodores’ defense that has surrendered 6.0 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average defensive team. So, Kentucky has a 0.9 yppl advantage when they have the ball and Vandy has a 1.2 yppl advantage over the Wildcats’ defense. That difference is certainly not enough to justify Vanderbilt being a double-digit favorite and my math model actually favors the Commodores by only 1 point because of a Kentucky’s huge edge in special teams (8.8 points). The Wildcats have one of the nation’s best special teams ratings while Vanderbilt has poor special teams, so the field position will more than make up for the small difference in yards per play for each team. I realize that Vanderbilt will be playing to become bowl eligible, but the Commodores are actually due for a letdown following last week’s high-scoring 42-49 overtime loss to Florida (it was 35-35 at the end of regulation). Teams that lose a high scoring affair have a tough time bouncing back with a good effort the next week and the Commodores apply to a negative 64-114-3 ATS situation based on that premise. The line value alone is enough to justify a play on Kentucky, so this is a good play even if Vanderbilt’s need to win cancels out the negative situation that they are in. I’ll take the points with Kentucky in a solid 3-Star Best Bet. Downgrade to a 2-Star Best Bet if Kentucky becomes an underdog of less than 10 points.

***Iowa 34 (+3) at WISCONSIN 26

Wisconsin was exposed last week by Penn State, but the Badgers remain vastly overrated and should not be favored against a an Iowa team that has lost on the final play in each of their last two games and should be better than 5-4. The Hawkeyes have an outstanding offense that can run the ball (5.5 yards per rushing play against Division 1A opposition that would allow 4.6 yprp to an average team) and throw the ball (Tate has averaged 6.9 yards per pass play against D-1A teams that would allow 5.5 yppp to an average quarterback) equally well and rate at 1.1 yards per play better than average with Tate at quarterback. Iowa will have no problem moving the ball today against a Wisconsin defense that is 0.4 yppl worse than average (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive unit). The Badgers are 0.4 yppl better than average offensively, averaging 5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl, but Iowa is just as good defensively (5.1 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team). As you can see, Wisconsin is actually just an average team overall from the line of scrimmage (0.4 yppl better than average on offense and 0.4 yppl worse than average on defense) while Iowa is 1.5 yppl better than average. Wisconsin is 8-2 because they are +8 in turnover margin and have one of the nation’s best special teams ratings (+8.0 points per game better than an average Division 1A team). However, my math model projects only a 0.15 turnover advantage for the Badgers and Iowa’s special teams are 7.2 points better than average, so Wisconsin won’t have their usual advantage in that area. Overall, the math favors Iowa by 6 points and the Hawkeyes will surely be focused after last week’s come-from-ahead loss to Northwestern dropped them to 5-4 on the season. Teams that lose to drop to 1 game over .500 have a tendency to play well the next week and Iowa applies to a 31-6-1 ATS subset of an 85-30-3 ATS situation that is based on that premise. Iowa is also 15-2 ATS the next week after a loss (5-0 ATS after back-to-back losses) and the Hawkeyes are 18-6-1 ATS in their last 25 games as an underdog. I’ll take the points with Iowa in a 3-Star Best Bet as long as the Hawkeyes remain an underdog.

***ARIZONA (-13) 40 vs. Washington 17

Arizona dismantled unbeaten UCLA last week and that momentum should carry over to this game, as teams at .500 or less that win straight up as a home underdog tend to cover the next week if they are at home (81-48-4 ATS). Arizona applies to a 31-4 ATS subset of that situation and Washington may have a tough time getting up for a road game after blowing their best chance to win at game last week when they lost to Oregon State (Washington applies to a negative 46-90-3 ATS situation based on their winless conference record). Washington coach Ty Willingham made a mistake in taking out starting quarterback Isaiah Stanback early in that game (despite the fact that Stanback had averaged a solid 7.1 yards per pass play on 13 pass plays) and replacing him with incompetent backup Johnny DuRocher, who averaged just 2.6 yppp on his 33 pass plays against Oregon State. Thankfully for Washington, DuRocher broke his hand and is out for the season, so expect Stanback back in the lineup in this game. The bad news for Washington is that Stanback’s good play (7.2 yppp this season against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback) won’t be enough to keep the Huskies competitive against an Arizona team that has been revitalized since the red shirt was taken off talented freshman quarterback Willie Tuitama. Tuitama stepped in for a struggling Richard Kovalcheck against Oregon and rallied the team and has since started the last two games. Overall, Tuitama has averaged 8.1 yppp in 3 games against teams that would combine to allow just 5.5 yppp to an average quarterback and the Wildcats have averaged a whopping 7.8 yards per play in his two starts against Oregon State and UCLA teams that would combine to allow 5.5 yppl to an average team. The better than normal running attack lately can not be attributed to Tuitama, so I actually rate the Wildcats’ offense at 1.1 yppl better than average with Tuitama at the helm. Washington’s defense is slightly better than average on a national scale (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.1 yppl against an average team), but that unit is not good by Pac-10 standards and Arizona should have another productive offensive game. The Washington offense is 0.7 yppl better than average with Stanback at quarterback (5.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) and Arizona is 0.2 yppl better than average defensively (6.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.2 yppl against an average team), so the Huskies should move the ball pretty well too. However, Arizona has an advantage in projected turnovers, they are at home, and the Wildcats have outstanding special teams even with punter Bougher out. The Wildcats actually have a better net punting average without Bougher’s 47.5 punting average because Bougher also boomed too many kicks into the endzone for touchbacks and his long boots resulted in plenty of room for the opposing returning to work with. Place-kicker Nick Folk has averaged 41.9 yards per punt and 40.7 net in his two full games as the punter and Arizona’s special teams rate at 5.7 points per game better than average (compared to Washington’s -0.7 points). Overall, the math favors Arizona by 17 points in this game and the situations favor Arizona. The 31-4 ATS angle favoring the Wildcats only applies at -14 points or less, so I’ll only make this a Best Bet at -14 points or less. Downgrade Arizona to a 2-Star if they are favored by 13 ½ or 14 points and Downgrade Arizona to a Strong Opinion if they are favored by more than 14 points.

**NORTH CAROLINA (-2.5) 29 vs. Maryland 17

North Carolina is a quiet 6-2 ATS this season and the Tarheels are still underrated even after upsetting Boston College last Saturday. UNC isn’t much offensively (4.7 yppl with QB Baker under center, against teams that would allow 4.9 yppl to an average team), and they rate at 0.1 yppl worse than average with RB Ronnie McGill as the main back the last 4 games after missing the first 4 games with an injury. The Tarheels have a solid defense that rates at 0.8 yppl better than average (5.1 yppl against teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average team) and they have good special teams (+3.8 points per game). Maryland’s starting quarterback Sam Hollenbach returns this week after missing the Terps’ game against Florida State with an injury to his non-throwing shoulder and Hollenbach has averaged 7.3 yppp against teams that would allow 5.9 yppp to an average team. I rate Maryland’s offense at 0.7 yppl better than average with Hollenbach at the helm and Lance Ball as the main ball carrier (he missed the first few weeks). Maryland’s defense is only 0.2 yppl better than average (5.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team), so Maryland has an overall advantage of 0.2 yppl from the line of scrimmage, which is negated by the home field advantage (my math model adjusts for home field and has both teams gaining 355 total yards in this game). North Carolina has a solid advantage in special teams and my math model favors the Tarheels by 6 ½ points. North Carolina has the line value on their side and the Tarheels apply to a 50-14-1 ATS home momentum situation that is based on last week’s upset win over Boston College. That situation has a 57.2% chance of covering given a fair line and the line value adds a bit to that percentage and makes the Tarheels worthy of a 2-Star Best Bet at -3 points or less.

**VIRGINIA (-3.5) 30 vs. Georgia Tech 14

Virginia and Georgia Tech are similar teams in that they are both mediocre offensively and good defensively, but the Cavaliers have far superior special teams, are at home, and qualify in a strong positive situation. The Cavs’ offense is 0.1 yppl worse than average this season (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team), which is the same rating as Georgia Tech’s offense when Reggie Ball is at quarterback (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team – Ball missed the U Conn game). Both defensive units are good for the season and both have improved with the return of a star player in recent weeks. Georgia Tech’ stop unit has allowed 4.7 yppl this season (to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defense), but they have been 0.1 yppl better in 4 games that star DE Eric Henderson has played in this season (the first 2 and the most recent 2). Virginia’s defense received a bigger boost recently when All-American LB Ahmad Brooks returned to form 3 games ago and has looked better and better each week after spending most of the season recovering from off-season knee surgery. Virginia’s defense is only 0.2 yppl better than average for the season, but they have allowed just 4.4 yppl in their last 3 games (against teams that would combine to average 5.2 yppl against an average team) since Brooks became healthy enough to contribute. Virginia coach Al Groh suspended 4 players, 3 on defense, but only starting CB Tony Franklin is worth making an adjustment for and he's worth no more than a point. These teams are pretty even from the line of scrimmage, but Virginia has very good special teams and Georgia Tech has bad special teams, which result in the math model favoring the Cavaliers by 7 points in this game after adjusting for Brooks and the absence of Franklin on the Virginia defense. Virginia’s recent good defensive outings (just 10 points total allowed in their last two games) sets up the Cavaliers in a very strong 45-8 ATS home favorite momentum situation that has a 58.8% chance of covering a fair line. The line on this game appears to be better than fair and Virginia knows that they must win this game to become bowl eligible since their two remaining games are against Virginia Tech and Miami-Florida, so you can expect their best effort on a field where the Cavs are 18-5 ATS in games when not favored by more than 23 points. I'll lay 7 points or less with Virginia in a 2-Star Best Bet.

Strong Opinions

**IDAHO (+10.5) 26 vs. Louisiana Tech 27

There’s really not much difference between Idaho and Louisiana Tech except for their records, which are 5-3 for LA Tech and 2-6 for Idaho. Let’s start by comparing the offenses. Idaho rates at 0.7 yards per play worse than average offensively, averaging 4.9 yppl (with starting QB Wichman in the game) against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team. Louisiana Tech, meanwhile, is also 0.7 yppl worse than average (with starting QB Kubik in the game), averaging 5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team. Idaho’s defense is 0.8 yppl worse than average (6.0 yppl against teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team) while the Bulldogs are 0.6 yppl worse than average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 4.7 yppl against an average team). So, while Idaho has been out-gained by 1.1 yppl (4.9 yppl to 6.0 yppl) and Louisiana Tech has been out-gained by only 0.3 yppl (5.0 yppl to 5.3 yppl) there is really only a 0.2 yppl overall advantage in Louisiana Tech’s favor after compensating for the much easier schedule of teams that the Bulldogs faced. That is something that apparently is not showing up in the line and my math model favors Louisiana Tech by only 2 points (Idaho is at home, but Louisiana Tech has an advantage in projected turnovers and special teams). I also like the fact that Idaho has had an extra week to prepare and they should be eager to hit the field again after winning a game just prior to their bye week (teams coming off a win and bye are good bets as home underdogs). Vandals’ quarterback Steven Wichman should also have a good game throwing against a Bulldogs’ defense that has allowed 5.9 yards per pass play to teams that would combine to average just 5.0 yppp against an average defensive team. Wichman has struggled throwing against good defensive teams this season, and he is 0.4 yppp worse than average overall (6.1 yppp against teams that would allow 6.5 yppp to an average team), but Wichman has averaged 8.0 yppp against the 4 bad pass defenses he has faced this season (UNLV, Hawaii, Utah State, and New Mexico State – who would combine to allow 7.3 yppp to an average QB). I’ll take Idaho in a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more and I’ll Downgrade Idaho to a Strong Opinion if they become an underdog of less than 10 points.

Note: The line on Idaho was +10 ½ when I released my plays on Thursday morning, but quickly went down to +9, so I decided to count it as a Strong Opinion winner rather than a 2-Star Best Bet winner.

PURDUE (-23) 44 vs. Illinois 13

A lot was expected of Purdue this season and the Boilermakers fell apart both emotionally and physically (injuries to their secondary) after their late September overtime loss to Minnesota. The Boilermakers secondary took a beating in the next 3 games without 3 starters that were replaced by offensive players with no experience and the defensive was playing conservatively rather than playing their normal attacking style. Purdue’s makeshift secondary allowed an average of 428 aerial yards at 9.8 yards per pass play against Notre Dame, Iowa, and Northwestern, but that unit has FS Smith and CB Hickman back in the lineup in recent weeks and the Boilermakers returned to their attacking schemes starting with their game against Wisconsin and they’ve allowed 6.7 yppp in their last 3 games to teams that would combine to average 7.6 yppp against an average defense. Purdue has had a great run defense all season long (4.3 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yprp against an average defense) and that unit now rates at 0.8 yppl better than average with their secondary back intact. Illinois is 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively (4.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average offense) and they have averaged just 10 points this season in 4 games against better than average defensive teams (Cal, Iowa, Penn State, and Ohio State) and don’t figure to get too much more than that in this game. Purdue’s offense isn’t as good with Curtis Painter at quarterback in place of Brandon Kirsch, as Painter is a below average passer (5.0 yppp against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp to an average team) while Kirsch averaged 6.5 yppp (against teams that would allow 5.8 yppp to an average quarterback). Painter is a bit better running the option, but overall the Boilermakers are only 0.3 yppl better than average offensively with Painter at quarterback – compared to +0.9 yppl with Kirsh. Painter and the rest of the Purdue attack will have plenty of success today against an Illini defense that has given up 6.8 yppl this season to teams that would average 5.8 yppl against an average stop unit and the math favors Purdue by 29 ½ points in this game and gives them a 57.1% chance of covering at the current line of -23 points. That percentage could be higher given coach Tiller’s 24-11 ATS record in conference home games, including 11-1 ATS when favored by 9 points or more (11-0 ATS favored from 9 to 24 points). I’ll consider Purdue a Strong Opinion at -24 points or less.

Upgrade Purdue to a 2-Star Best Bet if they become a favorite of 21 points or less.

Baylor 24 (+8) at MISSOURI 25

Baylor has covered the spread in all 5 of their road games, which include a win at Iowa State and overtime losses at Texas A&M and at Oklahoma (also won straight up at SMU and at Army). Missouri isn’t better than any of the Big 12 teams that Baylor has already battled on the road and the Bears will play hard this week in their effort to try to secure a bowl bid (a win here and at home over lowly Oklahoma State will give them 6 wins). Both of these teams have gone 0-2 straight up and 0-2 ATS in their last 2 games, but that scenario favors the visitor (61% ATS in conference games since 1980) and Baylor applies to a 54-19 ATS subset of that situation. Baylor continues to struggle offensively, averaging just 4.6 yards per play in 8 games against Division 1A opponents (who would combine to allow 5.2 yppl to an average team), but the Bears’ defense is 0.6 yppl better than average and they’ve allowed more than 5.0 yppl to only very good offensive teams Texas Tech and Texas. Missouri certainly doesn’t qualify as a very good offensive team, as the Tigers have averaged 5.4 yppl when Brad Smith is behind center (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team). Missouri is a bit worse than average defensively (5.3 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team), so both of these teams have been exactly average from the line of scrimmage overall. Baylor has a huge edge in special teams (5.1 points), but the Tigers figure to win the turnover battle given that Smith has a low interception percentage of just 2.0% in his career (per pass play). The turnovers differential won’t be bad at all if Baylor coach Guy Morriss makes the correct choice and re-installs Shawn Bell at quarterback rather than erratic sophomore Terrance Parks, who played the entire way in last week’s 0-62 blowout loss to Texas. Parks has thrown 5 interceptions in 54 pass plays this season (and on 4.9% of his pass plays in his career) while Bell has thrown just 6 picks in 269 pass plays this season and only 7 interceptions in 498 career pass plays (1.4%). Both quarterbacks grade about the same on a yards per pass play basis, but Bell’s lack of mistakes makes him the much better choice. With Parks at quarterback my math model favors Missouri by 6 points and the math favors Missouri by only 1 point if Bell returns to his starting spot. For now, I’ll just assume that Parks will start but Baylor looks like a pretty solid play anyway given the favorable situation. I’ll consider Baylor a Strong Opinion at +7 points or more and will Upgrade Baylor to a 2-Star Best Bet at +10 points or more.

Texas A&M 21 (+13) at OKLAHOMA 27

Texas A&M is just 2-11 ATS on the road under coach Franchione, but that has been factored into the line move (this game opened at 10 points) and the Aggies are due to turn things around with a good effort. Teams that fall to just 1 game above .500 with a loss the previous week have a tendency to play with more effort in their next games and the Aggies qualify in a very good 85-30-3 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation that is based on that premise. Oklahoma, meanwhile, is off a late season bye week, which is not necessarily a good thing. In fact, the Sooners apply to a negative 33-78 ATS situation that is based on their bye week and with A&M’s revenge motive. Texas A&M is certainly capable of playing this game tight, as the Aggies’ offense has averaged 6.4 yppl against teams that would allow just 5.3 yppl to an average team and they are 0.7 yppl better than average after adjusting for the injuries to their wide-receiving corps (Schroeder joins Taylor on the bench for the rest of the season with injury). Oklahoma’s defense is 0.9 yppl better than average (4.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team), so the Sooners only have a small advantage when the Aggies have the ball. Oklahoma’s offense has been better since Rhett Bomar took over at quarterback in game 3 and a healthy Adrian Peterson can’t hurt – although the Sooner’s rush attack rates the same in 4 games with a healthy Peterson (4.8 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.9 yprp to an average team) as it does in 4 games without a healthy Peterson (4.1 yprp against teams that would allow 4.2 yprp to an average team). Bomar is a below average passer (5.1 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 5.4 yppp to an average quarterback) and the Sooners’ offense is 0.4 yppl worse than average since Bomar took over at quarterback against UCLA in week 3 and they have not averaged more than 5.6 yppl in any game this season. Texas A&M is good enough up front to contain the Sooners’ ground game (4.5 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yprp against an average team) and Bomar won’t take full advantage of a bad Texas A&M secondary that has surrendered 7.2 yppp to teams that would average 6.1 yppp against an average team (they’ve been just 0.2 yppp worse than average against average or worse passing teams). The Aggies defense is 0.4 yppl worse than average overall, which is the same rating as the Oklahoma offense. So, the Aggies have a 0.2 yppl advantage when they have the ball and the two teams are even when the Sooners have possession, so this game comes down to special teams, turnovers and the home field, which all favor Oklahoma. My math model favors Oklahoma by just 13 points overall and the math would favor the Sooners by 15 ½ points if I only used stats from Texas A&M’s road games. Home/road differential are 20% predictive, so a home/road adjusted math model figure is Oklahoma by 13 ½ points and the situations that favor the Aggies have a 57.9% chance of covering at a fair line. So, the line is pretty fair and Texas A&M is still a good play in this game based on the situations. I’ll consider Texas A&M a Strong Opinion and I’ll Upgrade Texas A&M to a 2-Star Best Bet if they become an underdog of 16 points or more.

Free Analysis

CALIFORNIA (+18.5) 27 vs. USC 41

Nobody plays USC tougher than Jeff Tedford’s Golden Bears, who are 3-0 ATS against the Trojans and are the last team to defeat the nation’s #1 team. The Bears lost by just 2 points at USC in Tedford’s first season, then beat the Trojans in overtime here in Berkeley in 2003 (as a 13 ½ point dog). Last season, Cal was the better team, out-gaining USC 437 yards at 5.7 yards per play to 209 yards at 4.4 yppl, but managed to lose 17-23 because of special teams miscues and a -2 in turnover margin. Overall, Tedford’s Bears have out-gained the Trojans 5.6 yppl to 5.2 yppl in those 3 games and Pete Carroll has said the Tedford is extremely difficult to prepare for. Tedford is at his best as a tactician when his team is out-manned as his Bears are 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog and have not lost by more than 14 points in any game during his 4 year tenure – something only a few teams have accomplished during that span. It won’t be quite as easy for Cal to stay close this year, as quarterback Joseph Ayoob has been far too inconsistent and mediocre throwing the football (6.2 yards per pass play as a starter, against teams that would allow 6.1 yppp to an average quarterback). The Bears do have one of the nation’s best rushing attacks (6.9 yards per rushing play against teams that would allow 4.7 yprp to an average team) and their offense overall rates at 1.2 yppl better than average (6.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average attack). USC’s defense only rates at 0.9 yppl better than average overall this season (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average team), but they are actually much better when you only include the numbers that their first string defense has allowed and I rate their starting defensive unit at 1.3 yppl better than average. In 3 games this season in which the Trojans were favored by less than 28 points (Oregon, Arizona State, and Notre Dame) the defense actually was a bit better, allowing 4.8 yppl in those games to offenses that would average a combined 6.5 yppl against an average team. Cal should have decent success moving the ball against USC, but the Trojans’ first team offense, averaging 8.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team, will move the ball at their normal rate against a Bears’ defense that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average offensive team (the national average is 5.4 yppl, so Cal is 0.3 yppl better than average defensively). The Bears actually have an advantage this year in special teams (the one area where USC is just mediocre), but the math – using USC’s first team offensive and defensive numbers – favors the Trojans by 18 points. However, Cal has always played better against better teams under Tedford and teams that run the ball well are excellent bets as home underdogs or more than 7 points. California applies to a 46-17 ATS statistical profile indicator that is based on that premise that is worth 4 points and 14 points is as many as Tedford’s team has ever lost by.

IOWA ST. (+2) 26 vs. Colorado 23

Iowa State has been a pretty solid team all season thanks to a solid defense and good special teams, but the offense has started to contribute more now that running back Stevie Hicks is healthy again and quarterback Brett Meyers is starting to get hot (9.0 yards per pass play in his last 3 games – against teams that would allow 6.8 yppp to an average quarterback). I still rate the Cyclones’ offense as just average overall, but their defense is 0.3 yppl better than average and their special teams is 5.4 points per game better than average. Colorado, however, is better in every phase of the game. The Buffaloes are 0.5 yppl better than average offensively with Joel Klatt and running back Hugh Charles in the game (he missed last week, but says he’s ready to play this week), they are 1.0 yppl better than average defensively and their special teams rate at 5.8 points per game better than average. Overall, my math model favors Colorado by 5 ½ points in this game, which keeps me from playing Iowa State. The Cyclones qualify in a number of very good home momentum situations, the best of which is a 52-13 ATS home underdog momentum situation. The situation would give Iowa State a profitable 58.3% chance of covering if the line were fair, but that is not the case here and the Cyclones have only a 55.3% chance of covering at the current line of +2 ½ points, which is not good enough to make them a play unless the line went to +6 points or more (I’d consider Iowa State a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more).

COLORADO ST. (-7.5) 31 vs. San Diego St. 21

Colorado State has an outstanding offense that was predictably shut down last week by a very good TCU team in a good situation (I had TCU as a Best Bet). For the season the Rams have averaged 6.1 yppl (against teams that would combine to allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and they have an advantage over a San Diego State defense that is 0.3 yppl better than average (5.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average defense). The Rams are not good defensively (6.2 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average team), but the Aztecs are equally bad offensively (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) and my math model favors Colorado State by 10 ½ points.

ALABAMA (+3) 23 vs. LSU 21

Alabama has struggled offensively since losing big play receiver Tyrone Prothro last month, and Crimson Tide quarterback Brodie Croyle has averaged only 5.7 yards per pass play in 4 games without his main target (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppp to an average quarterback). Bama still has a very strong rushing attack, but they’ve been only 0.3 yards per play better than average offensively in those 4 games (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) and the offense didn’t score a touchdown in last week’s 17-0 win over Mississippi State. LSU’s defense is very good overall (4.4 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.5 yppl against an average team), but the Tigers aren’t too much better than average against the run (4.5 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average defense) and my math model projects 5.3 yprp for Alabama in this game, which should be enough to sustain a few drives even with an inconsistent pass attack. LSU’s offense is 0.6 yppl better than average (6.0 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and Alabama’s defense isn’t as good as it appears, as the 4.2 yppl that they’ve allowed have come against teams that would average only 4.9 yppl against an average stop unit. Overall, my math model, adjusted for Prothro’s absence of course, favors LSU by 6 points. However, home underdogs that can run and play good defense are historically good bets and Alabama applies to a 98-44-4 ATS home underdog situation based on their strong running numbers and a 33-10 ATS situation based on last week’s shutout win. Those situations combine to be worth 8 points and I’ll lean with Alabama based on those angles.

PITTSBURGH (-12) 24 vs. Connecticut 9

Connecticut was not a good offensive team with starting quarterback Matt Bonislawski and they’ve been even worse in 3 games since he’s been injured. Backups D.J. Hernandez and Dennis Brown have been equally inept and the Huskies have averaged only 3.6 yards per play in 3 games without Bonislawski (against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team). Pittsburgh’s stingy defense (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average team) should have no trouble dominating this game. Connecticut has a pretty good defense too (4.7 yppl against teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average team) and Pitt is 0.7 yppl worse than average offensively (4.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average offense), so the Panthers don’t figure to move the ball that well either. Pitt does have a 4.1 points edge in special teams and the math favors the Panthers to cover the number in a low scoring game.

KENT STATE (-7) 26 vs. Buffalo 16

My math model favors Kent by 7 points, so the line is fair, but winless teams (Buffalo) are only 22-47-2 ATS from game 8 on if they are not getting more than 10 points (as long as they are not playing another winless team), so I’ll lean with Kent.

WYOMING (+4.5) 30 vs. BYU 28

BYU has scored 117 points in their last two games because they’ve played teams (Air Force and UNLV) that rank among the worst teams in the nation defending the pass. Wyoming has been struggling to win games lately (4 straight losses), but the Cowboys have a good pass defense (5.6 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.0 yppp against an average team) and the defense rates at 0.5 yppl better than average overall (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team), which is nearly as good as BYU’s offense (6.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team). Wyoming has a big advantage, however, when they have the ball as their mediocre attack (5.5 yppl against teams that would allow 5.6 yppl to an average team) is 0.6 yppl better than a BYU defense that has allowed 6.1 yppl to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average stop unit. Wyoming is the better team getting points at home, but the Cowboys also apply to a 50-86-3 ATS negative momentum situation that is based on their current losing streak. However, that situation is only worth 4 points and it only serves to get me off of Wyoming as a Best Bet (the Cowboys still have a profitable 56% chance of covering at +4 ½ points).

WESTERN MICH (-3) 35 vs. Central Mich 31

Western Michigan’s offense has averaged 6.1 yards per play (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average offense) since Tim Hiller took over as the starting quarterback 4 games ago and that is very good for a MAC team. Unfortunately, the Broncos are bad defensively and Central Michigan is pretty decent offensively too (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team. My math model favors the Broncos by 4 points and I have situations favoring both sides in this game. I'll pass on the side in this game, but the Over is worth a look.

MINNESOTA (-5.5) 44 vs. Michigan St. 31

In a game between two high-powered offensive teams, it is Minnesota’s superior defense that will make the difference. Michigan State’s offense is an impressive 1.6 yppl better than average (6.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) when starting quarterback Drew Stanton is in the game and Minnesota’s attack rates at 1.7 yppl better than average with quarterback Byran Cupito running the show (6.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.0 yppl to an average team – Cupito missed Minnesota’s loss to Wisconsin). The Gophers are better than people realize defensively, as they have allowed 5.4 yppl to a schedule of teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average team. Michigan State, meanwhile, has allowed 6.0 yppl to teams that would average 5.6 yppl against an average defensive unit, so Minnesota has an average advantage of 0.7 yppl if this game were played on a neutral field. Of course, this game is being played in Minnesota and the Gophers also have an advantage in projected turnovers and a 5.5 points edge in special teams. My math model actually favors Minnesota by 17 ½ points in this contest, but Michigan State applies to an 85-30-3 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation that will keep me from making the Gophers a Best Bet in this game.

WAKE FOREST (+16.5) 13 vs. Miami Fla 27

I suppose that Miami could letdown a bit after dominating Virginia Tech last week, but the Hurricanes actually qualify in a solid 135-76-5 ATS situation in this game. However, that angle will only serve to keep me from considering Wake Forest for a play since my math model favors the Canes by only 9 ½ points. I don’t expect Wake Forest to throw the ball well against an unbelievable Miami pass defense (3.0 yards per pass play allowed to teams that would average 6.6 yppp against an average team), but the Demon Deacons a run oriented team and the Hurricanes aren’t nearly as dominating defending the run (3.8 yprp allowed to teams that would combine to average 4.4 yprp against an average team) and my math model project a decent 4.4 yprp for Wake in this game. What Miami a risky bet is an offense that is just 0.4 yards per play better than average (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) going up against a solid Wake Forest defense that is 0.2 yppl better than average. Wake Forest also has a history under coach Jim Grobe of exceeding expectations against good teams and the Demon Deacons are now 16-7-1 ATS as a dog of 7 points or more under Grobe. I’ll lean with Wake Forest despite the angle favoring Miami.

ARKANSAS ST. (-3) 31 vs. Troy State 22

Troy State has been better offensively with Julian Foster at quarterback the last 4 games, but he is still a well below average passer (6.5 yards per pass play against teams that would allow 7.8 yppp to an average QB) and Troy’s offense rates at 1.3 yppl worse than average with Foster behind center. Arkansas State’s defense is also 1.3 yppl worse than average, but the Indians have the advantage when they have the ball. ASU’s offense is actually only 0.2 yppl worse than average on a national scale (which is great for a Sun Belt team) with star running back Warren in the lineup (he missed two games) and Troy’s defense, while very good for a Sun Belt team, is 0.4 yppl worse than average. My math model favors Arkansas State by 9 points and gives them a profitable 56.3% chance of covering at the current line of -3 points.

GEORGIA (-3) 31 vs. Auburn 23

Georgia gets starting quarterback D.J. Shockley back in the lineup after he missed the Bulldogs’ 10-14 loss to Florida. The Bulldogs rate at 1.3 yards per play better than average with Shockley in the lineup if you take away his running stats (not sure how well he’ll run in this game with his injured knee) and Auburn’s defense is not nearly as good, allowing 4.7 yppl to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team. Georgia’s defense isn’t that great either, allowing 4.8 yppl to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team, and Auburn’s attack (6.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) has an advantage in that match-up. Overall, my math model favors Georgia by 6 points and the Bulldogs apply to a solid 84-38-2 ATS last season situation that is stronger than a negative 102-156-1 ATS angle that also applies to Georgia. I’ll lean with Georgia minus the points, which is a decent play if Shockley’s throws the ball at his normal level, but the Over looks like the better play in this game given that each offense is better than their opposing defense.

CLEMSON (+1.5) 28 vs. Florida St. 27

Florida State is a good team, but the Seminoles are hardly dominating, rating at 0.5 yards per play better than average on offense (5.7 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team) and 0.5 yppl better than average defensively (4.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.4 yppl against an average team). Clemson has a small advantage when they have the ball, as they rate at 0.6 yppl better than average (5.9 yppl against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team), and the Tigers are pretty solid defensively (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team). As you can see, the Seminoles only have a slight 0.1 yppl overall advantage in this game and my math model favors Clemson by 1 ½ points after adding in projected turnovers (favors Clemson) and special teams (favors Florida State).

NEW MEXICO ST. (+9.5) 26 vs. Nevada 31

Both of New Mexico State’s quarterbacks are ailing, but at least one of them should be healthy enough to play come kickoff time. The winless Aggies have a pretty good chance of being competitive in this game, as my math model favors the Wolf Pack by only 5 points. Winless teams (0-7 or worse) are normally bad bets if they are not getting more than 10 points (22-47-2 ATS), but New Mexico State also applies to a 118-67-5 ATS home underdog humiliation bounce-back situation. I’ll lean with the Aggies.

UAB (-8) 38 vs. Central Florida 28

Central Florida has covered the spread in 3 straight games and the Knights are still an underrated team based on my math model, which favors UAB by only 4 ½ points. However, UAB applies to a 176-88-7 ATS home momentum situation that is worth 5 ½ points, so I’ll lean with the Blazers minus the points and I'd also favor the Over.

TEXAS (-33) 41 vs. Kansas 7

Kansas has a good enough defense (allowing just 4.1 yppl to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team) to keep Texas from scoring at will (the Longhorns’ offense is 2.0 yppl better than average) and my math model favors the Longhorns by only 28 points. However, Texas applies to a very good 80-28-4 ATS home momentum situation which makes it tough to play against the Horns. I suggest passing, or perhaps going Under if you're compelled to bet this game.

OKLAHOMA ST. (+23) 20 vs. Texas Tech 40

My math model, which uses projected yardage (and turnovers and special teams ratings) to predict a final score favors Texas Tech by only 13 points in this game, but my compensated points model favors the Red Raiders by 27 points. I’ll call for something in between those numbers and pick Tech by 20 points.

SOUTH CAROLINA (+4) 24 vs. Florida 21

The Old Ball Coach surely has spent extra time preparing for this game against his old employer and I like the Gamecocks’ chances of getting the upset. Florida’s spread offense doesn’t quite work as well against teams with speed on defense, which wasn’t a problem when Urban Meyer was running that attack in the Mountain West Conference, but the Gators face a lot of speed in the SEC and their attack has been just 0.1 yards per play better than average in SEC play (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team). South Carolina doesn’t defend the run well (4.9 yprp allowed to teams that would average 4.9 yprp against an average team), so the Gators will have decent success when they run the ball, but the Gamecocks are great against the pass (4.8 yppp against teams that would average 6.2 yppp against an average team) and they rate at 0.7 yppl better than average overall on defense. Florida’s defense is nearly as good (0.6 yppl better than average) and South Carolina’s offense is also 0.1 yppl better than average (the same as Florida). These are two very evenly matched teams from the line of scrimmage, but Florida has a solid edge in projected turnovers and in special teams and my math model favors the Gators by 2 ½ points. However, Florida applies to a negative 30-70-1 ATS situation that is worth 5 points, so I’ll call for the upset and give the Gamecocks a solid 56.4% chance of covering at the current line of +4 points.

WASHINGTON ST. (+4.5) 34 vs. Oregon 32

Oregon’s Kellen Clemens was one of the best quarterbacks in the nation before getting hurt a few weeks ago against Arizona, and backups Leaf and Dixon are far short of his level of passing – combining to average only 5.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppp to an average team). If Leaf and Dixon (split snaps against Cal) play at the level they’ve played at so far then Washington State will probably win this game. The Cougars are winless in the Pac 10, but they are a decent team with an explosive offense that has averaged 6.7 yards per play against teams that would allow 5.2 yppl to an average team. Oregon has a very good pass defense (5.2 yppp against teams that would average 7.0 yppp against an average team), but the Ducks don’t defend the run well (5.6 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yprp against an average defensive team) and they’ve surrendered 6.7 yprp in their last two games to Arizona and Cal. Washington State has the Pac-10’s leading rusher in Jerome Harrison and he should have a big day carrying the ball. Washington State’s defense has been 0.4 yppl worse than average (6.8 yppl allowed to teams that would average 6.4 yppl against an average defense) since star LB Will Derting was injured earlier this season, so Oregon’s offense (0.2 yppl better than average without Clemens) should still work pretty well with Leaf and Dixon running the attack. Overall, however, my math model calls for an upset win and I see no reason not to project the Cougars to win their first Pac 10 game.

HAWAII (-16.5) 40 vs. Utah St. 21

My math model favors Hawaii by 19 points and they could be looking to beat up on someone after losing back-to-back games to Fresno and Nevada.

FLORIDA ATL. (-3.5) 26 vs. North Texas 19

Both of these teams were overwhelmed by teams from major conferences earlier this season, but using stats from Sun Belt games only would result in my math model picking Florida Atlantic to win 26-19. That sounds about right to me.

UL LAFAYETTE (-8.5) 35 vs. Florida Intl. 20

My math model favors Lafayette by 15 ½ points and the Ragin’ Cajuns apply to a 52-16 ATS last home game angle while Florida International applies to a negative 47-108-2 ATS road underdog letdown situation that is based on last week’s upset win at Monroe. However, Louisiana Lafayette is now 0-11-2 ATS in their history as a favorite of 3 points or more, so I will resist making the Ragin’ Cajuns a Best Bet in this game despite the line value and good general situations.

S. Florida 27 (-7.5) at SYRACUSE 13

Syracuse is 1-7 straight up and 2-6 ATS with their only victory coming against 0-9 Buffalo. The Orange couldn’t even win as a 5 ½ point home favorite against Cincinnati two weeks ago and that loss sets them up in a negative 16-41-1 ATS situation. Syracuse is horrible on offense (4.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) and doesn’t figure to score much in this game against a solid Bulls defense that has yielded only 5.2 yppl this season to teams that would combine to average 5.8 yppl against an average defensive team. South Florida isn’t much offensively (4.8 yppl against teams that would allow 5.1 yppl to an average team) and Syracuse is pretty solid defensively overall (5.0 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team), but the Orange are just mediocre defending the run (4.6 yards per rushing play against teams that would average 4.7 yprp against an average team) and South Florida has a good back in Andre Hall (2123 yards at 5.8 ypr in his career). My math model favors the Bulls by 9 ½ points and the situation going against Syracuse is worth just over 4 points, giving South Florida a solid 56.3% chance of covering at -8 points. I’ll consider South Florida a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less.

No Carolina St. 19 (+4.5) at BOSTON COLLEGE 18

NC State is now a perfect 14-0 ATS as an underdog away from home under coach Chuck Amato after beating Florida State straight up as a 13 point road dog last week. Boston College, meanwhile, is still 18-5 ATS after a conference loss despite failing in that role last Saturday in their upset loss to North Carolina. This should be a pretty competitive, low scoring affair with two strong defensive teams matching up against mediocre offensive units. The Eagles are exactly average offensively, averaging 5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team and they’ll struggle against a very good NC State defense that is 1.2 yppl better than average (4.5 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.7 yppl against an average defense). Coach Amato made a mistake in switching to Marcus Stone at quarterback in place of Jay Davis, who had posted better than average compensated stats in 6 games as the starter. Stone has averaged only 5.1 yards per pass play in 82 pass plays this season (against teams that would allow 6.2 yppp to an average quarterback) and the only reason the team has won in Stone’s two starts is because it happened to coincide with inserting freshman back Andre Brown into the lineup. Brown has 437 yards rushing in his 2 games as the starting tailback and has averaged 7.4 ypr and the Wolfpack have still been 0.3 yppl worse than average in those 2 games (5.1 yppl against teams that would allow 5.4 yppl to an average team) because of Stone’s ineffectiveness throwing the football. Boston College has one of the nation’s best run defenses (3.3 yards per rushing play allowed to teams that would average 4.8 yprp against an average defense) and they defend the pass well too (5.4 yppp allowed to teams that would average 6.3 yppp against an average team), so the Wolfpack don’t figure to move the ball well either. My math model favors Boston College by 3 ½ points, but I’ll call for the straight up win because of NC State’s record as a road underdog.

Memphis 14 (+18.5) at TENNESSEE 28

Tennessee coach Phillip Fulmer has decided to stick with sophomore quarterback Erik Ainge for the rest of the season in an effort to give him added experience to help him for next season, which means that senior Rick Clausen is on the bench despite being the much better quarterback. Clausen at least made the struggling Tennessee offense respectable, as he averaged 6.3 yards per pass play against teams that would allow a combined 5.6 yppp to an average quarterback (weighted, of course, depending on how many pass plays he had against each team). Ainge, meanwhile, has completed only 41% of his passes for a mere 3.7 yppp against teams that would allow 5.5 yppp to an average quarterback. Ainge will get all the prep with the first team offense, so he’ll probably improve on those pathetic numbers and he was only 0.6 yppp worse than average last week against the Irish (4.8 yppp against a Notre Dame defense that would allow 5.4 yppp at home to an average quarterback). Tennessee’s rushing attack has been sub-par as well (4.0 yprp against teams that would allow 4.5 yprp to an average team) and the Vols’ offense rates at 0.5 yppl worse than average if Ainge plays at the higher than normal level he played at last week (big if). Memphis is 0.6 yppl worse than average defensively, so Tennessee will have decent success moving the ball in this game, but probably not enough to cover such a big number against a decent Memphis offense that has averaged 6.2 yppl in 3 games since former quarterback Maurice Avery took over the quarterbacking duties (against teams that would allow 6.0 yppl to an average team). Avery has taken advantage of teams stacking the line to stop DeAngelo Williams, the nation’s leading rusher, and he’s averaged 8.3 yppp (against teams that would allow 6.9 yppp to an average QB). Avery also runs well, but the extra attention teams are paying to stopping the run has resulted in a less effective rush attack, although the Tigers have still been better than average running the ball with Avery at the helm (5.5 yprp against teams that would allow 5.3 yprp to an average team). Williams is bothered by a sprained ankle that limited him a bit against UAB, but he’s had a week and a half to heal and will probably be close to 100%, although I decided to shave 0.3 yprp off of Memphis in case he’s not as effective. Tennessee has a very good defense that has yielded just 4.7 yppl to teams that would average 5.9 yppl against an average team and my math model projects just 248 yards at 3.7 yppl for the Tigers in this game. Memphis does have the edge in projected turnovers (they don’t throw that much and Ainge sucks) and in special teams and the math favors Tennessee by just 12 points. Memphis always gets fired up for this in-state match-up (they’ve covered 5 straight in this series) and Tennessee is just 8-23 ATS in their last 31 home games, including just 3-22 ATS if they are not facing a team with a win percentage of less than .250. However, the Vols apply to a solid 71-31-1 ATS big home favorite bounce-back situation that will keep me off the Tigers as a play.

Indiana 13 (+25.5) at MICHIGAN 33

My math model favors Michigan by 27 ½ points, but the Wolverines qualify in a negative 23-65 ATS late-season off a bye situation (big favorites tend to relax too much during a late season bye week) and Indiana applies to a decent 44-20-1 ATS bounce-back situation that plays on teams that have allowed 41 points or more in consecutive games. I’ll lean with the Hoosiers based on the situations.

Arizona St. 37 (+3.5) at UCLA 38

There should be plenty of points scored in this game, which will probably come down to the final possession. UCLA may be lingering on their lost last week to Arizona, as teams that start the season 5-0 or better tend to letdown the game after suffering their first defeat (they apply to a negative 23-50-1 ATS situation that is based on that premise). The Bruins also apply to a solid 43-12 ATS blowout bounce-back situation, so it’s tough to say how last week’s loss will affect them today. I do know that Arizona State is better than UCLA on both offense and defense and will win this game if special teams doesn’t beat them (UCLA has a 6.7 points edge in special teams and you may remember how ASU lost to LSU early in the season – two blocked kicks). My math model favors UCLA by 1 ½ points, so I’d prefer to take the points.

Arkansas 24 (+1.5) at MISSISSIPPI 17

My math model picks this game even, but Mississippi qualifies in a negative 14-45 ATS off a late season bye angle, so Arkansas looks like a pretty good play.

Tulane 29 (+1.5) at RICE 23

How bad is Tulane to be an underdog against a winless Rice team? Well, the Green Wave are bad, but they’re not quite that bad. My math model favors Tulane by 1 ½ points and playing against winless teams (0-7 or worse) is a pretty good bet if not laying more than 10 points. Tulane is a pretty solid play with a 57% chance of covering as a dog.

Navy 21 (+23.5) at NOTRE DAME 41

Navy is 66-30-1 ATS in games played away from home, including 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in South Bend, but the Irish apply to a solid 134-71-2 ATS home team indicator. Assuming that those cancel each other out, this game comes down to the math. Notre Dame has an outstanding offensive team that has averaged 6.0 yppl (against teams that would allow only 4.9 yppl to an average team) with minimal turnovers and the Irish should continue to post good numbers in this game against a mediocre Navy defense that has allowed 5.0 yppl to a schedule of teams that would average just 5.0 yppl against an average team. Navy’s offense, averaging 6.2 yppl against teams that would allow 5.8 yppl to an average attack, should score enough points to stay within the large number against an Irish stop unit that is just average this season (5.9 yppl allowed to teams that would average 5.9 yppl to an average team). My math model favors Notre Dame by 21 points and I see no reason to vary from that projection.

Kansas St. 19 (+6.0) at NEBRASKA 23

My math model favors Nebraska by 10 points in this game, but the Cornhuskers apply to a negative 19-54 ATS situation that is worth almost 6 points, so I’ll lean slightly with Kansas State.

East Carolina 26 (+9.5) at TULSA 30

MY math model favors Tulsa by only 7 ½ points against the underrated Pirates (6-2 ATS this season). Tulsa applies to a negative 64-114-3 ATS situation that is based on last week’s high-scoring 38-41 loss at UTEP which may still linger into their preparation for this game.

Ball St. 20 (+6.0) at EASTERN MICH 24

Ball State has only had their full squad together for 5 games after having to dole out multiple suspensions in their first 4 games, which hurt depth on defense and on special teams, which were horrendous early in the season but are now better than average. The Cardinals are 3-1-1 ATS in those last 5 games and my math model favors them to lose by only 4 points in this game, so I’ll lean with Ball State again this week.

UNLV 10 (+29.0) at TCU 35

My math model favors TCU by 37 points in this game, but I’d still rather take UNLV plus the points. The Horned Frogs are only 1-13 ATS as a favorite of more than 13 points under coach Patterson, including 0-2 this year (they lost straight up to SMU and failed to cover against Army). TCU also applies to a negative 19-60-1 ATS big favorite letdown situation that plays against huge favorites that are on a long win streak when facing a foe on a losing streak. The situations are worth more than the line value, so I’ll lean with UNLV plus the points.

UL Monroe 19 (+11.0) at MIDDLE TENN 24

My math model favors Middle Tennessee State by 11 ½ points, but Monroe qualifies in a very strong 53-9 ATS road underdog bounce-back situation that is stronger than the 51-21-1 ATS home favorite momentum situation that favors the Blue Raiders. I’d prefer to go with the stronger situation and will lean with the Indians plus the points.